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Conservation in a changing climateorganized by Rebecca Shaw (The Nature Conservancy), Christopher Pyke (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), and Joshua Lawler (Oregon State University)CLIMATE AND ADAPTATION: ASSESSMENT, GOVERNANCE, AND PRACTICE PULWARTY, ROGER. NOAA and University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA, roger.pulwarty@noaa.gov The idea of “adaptive management” has been widely advocated as a bridge between science and policy. We discuss this idea in the context of climatic and other uncertainties but ground the discussion in the implementation of actual adaptive management programs. Adaptive management has three key tenets. (1) Policies are experiments. (2) Compatibility of scales for management, natural, and socioeconomic processes. (3) Effective partnerships among private, local, state interests. In a watershed setting this can mean balancing hydropower production, habitat management, conservation, endangered species recovery, and cultural resources in order to experiment, incorporate learning, and adapt. Experience is drawn from the Colorado River Basin and the Nariva Swamp (a RAMSAR site) in Trinidad and Tobago. The strengths and weaknesses of an “adaptive management approach” are explored in the context of changing climatic baselines and scales of governance. In each case, we identify management goals, use of climate and other information, preparation for the consequences of future variations and surprises, and evaluation of ongoing management efforts. We conclude that designing effective adaptation strategies involves a redefinition of interdisciplinary research to encompass use-inspired research on the incorporation and evaluation of adaptation into programs, governance, and management practice. A CHALLENGE FOR CONSERVATION: CLIMATE AND CHEMICAL CONSEQUENCES OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS CALDEIRA, KEN. Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA, USA, kcaldeira@globalecology.stanford.edu It is now widely recognized that our climate and ocean chemistry are changing, and that our energy system and land-use practices are largely responsible for these changes. Carbon dioxide emissions threaten habitat both on land and under water; finding ways to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has become a conservation issue. Significant amounts of climate and chemical change are likely to occur despite our efforts to limit emissions of dangerous gases. Therefore, conservationists need to plan for climate change and make conservation decisions that consider changes (and uncertainty) in future climate and chemistry. I will review some of what is known regarding rates and magnitudes of change that might be expected to be experienced by terrestrial and marine ecosystems in the coming decades and centuries. We still largely lack skill in making detailed regional predictions of climate or ocean chemistry change; there is little skill in predicting climate or ocean chemistry changes beyond broad latitudinal patterns. Nevertheless, climate and chemical conditions predicted for the future lie well outside the bounds of natural variability. Predicted rates and amounts of future climate and ocean chemical change are alarming to those who value the biodiversity now found on Earth. MANAGING CALIFORNIA AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE PURKEY, DAVID. Natural Heritage Institute, dpurkey@n-h-i.org Climate change has the potential to change patterns of snow accumulation and snow melt in California, in accordance with which water management infrastructure is operated. Understanding how this infrastructure can be managed in the face of climate change in order to meet the array of vital water management objectives for the system is a critical question. An application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system for the Sacramento River Basin was used to evaluate the impact of four future climate scenarios, and to investigate whether water management adaptation could reduce potential impacts. The four climate scenarios were derived by downscaling the output from two GCMs (Parallel Climate Model and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) run under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) to a 1/8 degree grid over California. The Sacramento Valley WEAP application sampled these climate fields to provide input to a model of the Sacramento River Basin. The model was applied under two formulations, one where cropping and irrigation management patterns remained fixed over the course of a 100 year simulation and one where cropping and irrigation management patterns evolved over the course of the 21st century along with the climate. Model runs suggest changes in reservoir conditions that have implications for water temperature downstream of major reservoirs, which highlights how aquatic ecosystems respond to with climate change under various management alternatives. LIVING ON THE EDGE: KEEPING COASTAL WETLANDS ABOVE RISING SEAS SAXON, EARL. The Nature Conservancy, esaxon@tnc.org For 10,000 years, coastal wetlands have won the race to remain above sea level by accumulating sediments and peat faster than the sea level was rising. Projected rapid rises in sea level due to global warming, combined with land subsidence, place many such wetlands with their backs literally against the wallÅ\unable to migrate inland because of coastal ridges created by former high sea level stands and because of incompatible land uses in broad river valleys. We examine the wetlands on Albemarle Peninsula, North Carolina as an example of a dynamic equilibrium at risk from both natural and man-made factors. We find that the extent and pace of inundation will exceed the rate of climate-driven sea level rise, due to natural subsidence and human interference with the natural fire and hydrologic regimes. We offer a set of conservation strategies that may slow the pace of inundation and accelerate peat accumulation sufficiently to keep these wetlands above sea level. Efforts to maintain the structure and biodiversity of coastal wetlands can have significant benefits for adjacent near-shore marine and inland low-lying agricultural communities and sequester massive amounts of carbon that would otherwise escape to accelerate the pace and severity of rapid climate change. ADDRESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS HANSEN, LARA. World Wildlife Fund, lara.hansen@wwfus.org The effects of climate change are dramatically evident in coral reef ecosystems. Coral bleaching, as the result of increasing sea surface temperature, can be seen in coral reef ecosystems around the world, in some cases on an annual basis. There are also predictions of additional coral degradation due to the changing pH of the world’s oceans due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This all occurs on top of the other more proximal threats to coral reefs that are considered in traditional threat analysis. In order to adequately implement effective long-term conservation strategies to maintain coral reefs, our conservation paradigm must be modified to include consideration of climate change as an emerging threat. In this talk we will explore the existing threats to coral reefs and case studies of how to assess coral resilience and develop conservation strategies in response to climate change. ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR INVASIVE SPECIES MANAGEMENT AND MONITORING TO INCORPORATE CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS BIERWAGEN, BRITTA. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, bierwagen.britta@epa.gov Invasive species establishment and expansion is likely to be affected by future patterns of environmental variability, including climate change. It may be necessary to adapt existing management techniques for monitoring, eradication, and control to protect and restore ecological processes and ecosystem services affected by invasive species. We reviewed the literature, focusing on aquatic invasive species, and inventoried management programs in order to determine what information needs exist, particularly related to climate change. The literature review shows that several ecosystem stressors, including those associated with climate change, may facilitate the establishment and expansion of aquatic invasive species and increase their impacts on ecosystem services. The inventory of management actions shows current activities and decisions regarding aquatic invasive species. We then identified information gaps between the literature and needs of managers and decision-makers. For example, many managers and decision-makers are cognizant of potential climate change effects on the establishment and expansion of aquatic invasive species, yet few programs make decisions based upon predicted climate change effects. Therefore, we also analyze the data with respect to the risk of aquatic invasive species establishment and expansion due to climate change in order to identify management and monitoring strategies that can adapt to these changes. A FRAMEWORK FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION UNDER A CHANGING CLIMATE SHAW, REBECCA. The Nature Conservancy, San Francisco, CA, USA, rshaw@tnc.org Climate is a critical component of ecological systems, and it plays an important role in determining the distribution and abundance of life on Earth. This central role will make climate change a ubiquitous issue for natural resource managers, particularly for those attempting to protect and restore elements of biodiversity already imperiled by anthropogenic stressors. Researchers have explored many aspects of the impact of climate change on ecological systems, but managers still lack a basic framework for organizing their response by understanding relevant risks and the value of potential management alternatives. This review suggests a practical framework incorporating elements of both mitigation (reducing the magnitude and rate of change) and adaptation (increasing the resilience of natural systems to climate variability and change). We emphasize the important and interdependence of conservation goals and objectives, sensitivity of key conservation targets, availability and effectiveness of alternative, adaptive practice, and the role of multiple stressors. This framework allows a manager to identify the most vulnerable resources and structure their search for practical strategies to reduce the likelihood of unacceptable outcomes associated with climate change. | |||||||||||||||||
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