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TIDES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND CONSERVATION

"There is a tide in the affairs of men," Shakespeare wrote, "which, when taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; omitted, all the voyage of their lives is bound in shallows and miseries." He was on to something. The political landscape is in part shaped by such tides. For example, in the early 1970s, the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna was ratified and the United States passed numerous environmental laws such as the Endangered Species Act, Coastal Zone Management Act, and Clean Air Act. There are many reasons to think another high tide is near.

Of course political opportunities, whatever the tide, do not transform themselves into good legislation, better leaders, major cultural shifts, or new power relations. Opportunities must be recognized, understood, and acted on with skill, resolve, perseverance, and adequate resources.

Countries with routinized politics are typified by entrenched elites, bureaucratic inertia or byzantine legislative processes, so change is usually incremental. Failed leadership or policies are usually not enough to precipitate change failing attractive alternatives with sufficient backing (Wallace 1956, 1970; Ingram and Fraser 2006). Social scientists have long noted the clustering or pulses of change in societies, whether expressed in major legislation, new dominant cultural paradigms, or altered social relationships (e.g., Goldstone 1980, Berry 1991, Fischer 1996, Berry et al. 1998, Thompson 2000). The factors that generate opportunities also cluster: crises, the mobilization of new groups or states and the relative decline of others, new knowledge that leads to reconceptualization of problems and solutions (e.g., Kreisi 2004, Baumgartner 2006), or simpler events, such as the outcome of litigation [related to regional enforcement of the U.S. Endangered Species Act, for example (Davis 2006)].

Although these factors play different roles in different regime types (Koopmans 2004), political-economic cycles may explain much of this temporal unevenness: long cycles of price inflation-deflation, replacement of infrastructure and technology, and shorter growth cycles (Berry 1991). The price-infrastructure-technology investment cycles are approximately 55 years between peaks or troughs. Nested within one of these cycles (termed a K-wave after economist Nicholas Kondratieff) are two growth cycles, the first approximating the rising price phase (20-25 years) and the second synchronic with the decline (25-30 years). Picture the two humps of Camelus bactrianus superimposed on the one hump of Camelus dromedarious. When price troughs and growth troughs coincide, economic conditions are typically termed a depression or recession. However, like oceanic tides, K-waves are not synchronous across all economies but vary with political interventions, the size of the economy, and levels of integration into the global economy. K-waves are also subject to longer-range situations such as war and the rapid growth of regional economies.

Recessions are harbingers of political opportunity, notwithstanding their moderation via state intervention. In the United States, shifts from conservative to liberal leadership (not to be conflated with which political party holds power) typify recession. High inflation combined a growth trough typically heralds a shift from liberal to conservative rule. The shift away from an elite faction dominated by resource extraction interests (Phillips 2006) only presents an opportunity. Only concerted efforts by conservationists in the electoral process will result in the connections and favors that can be parlayed into policy gains.

The same aspects of conservative rule that encourage realignment of non-elite voters to choose an alternate elite coalition also increase the availability of people for grassroots political action. Grassroots action calls for and brings about cultural change and contributes to reshaping the political agenda. Grassroots movements are invigorated in part by the perception that resources are available to solve problems and by a social willingness to look at new solutions. Taking advantage of the potential for grassroots action requires investment in real mobilization, such as the South African movement against apartheid. Check writers, postcard signers, and long membership rolls of the marginally committed do not generate significant policy change. Success also hinges on aggressive coalition building, hard bargaining, and advancing a strong rather than a timid agenda.

Another opportunity is provided by the downturn phase of the price-investment-technology cycle (e.g., 1981-2008). During this period, profits come under pressure from market saturation and volatility, which increases the intensity of technological research and development (and speculation in "economic technologies" like subprime mortgages). Based on this research and development, some technologies and associated infrastructure becomes the subject of major investments. A subset become highly profitable and are widely adopted, fueling the next upswing in prices and growth. Once a cluster of innovations is adopted it cannot be derailed.

Many groups play a role in these investment decisions: business people trying to protect their industries and innovators trying to create new industries, investment bankers and fund managers seeking higher returns, and governments responding to pressure or campaign contributions. Venture capitalists may be the single most important gate-keeping group (Berry 1991). And they are the most open to conservationist influence because they are inclined to look at a broader range of factors in making decisions, including their own passions. Conservationists have some connections with venture capitalists--those who have come forward to support conservation. Influencing even a few of these people can create ripples that affect the decisions of others and possibly lessen future human demands on the natural world. As David Ehrenfeld pointed out in 1979, technology will not halt anthropogenic extinctions. But some technologies have lesser impact than others on the natural world. Technological and infrastructure decisions made by high-income nations also have the potential, when combined with policy changes in how technology is shared, to diminish the environmental impact of rapidly growing economies and perhaps to diminish the spike in resource wars that have accompanied growth and price upswings in the past (Goldstein 1988).

Whatever role SCB members play in conservation, awareness of opportunities is prerequisite to taking advantage of those opportunities. When the train is heading down the tracks not much can be done about its direction. But when the train pulls into the station it's possible to change tracks. To miss such an opportunity would be tragic.

David Johns, Portland State University, johnsd@pdx.edu

Literature Cited

Baumgartner, F.R. 2006. Punctuated equilibrium theory and environmental policy. Pages 24-46 in R. Repetto, editor. Punctuated equilibrium and the dynamics of U.S. environmental policy. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut.

Berry, B.J.L. 1991. Long wave rhythms in economic development and political behavior. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland.

Berry, B.J.L., E. Elliot, E.J. Harpham, and H. Kim. 1998. The rhythms of American politics. University Press of America, Lanham, Maryland.

Davis, C. 2006. The politics of grazing on federal lands: a policy change perspective. Pages 232-252 in R. Repetto, editor. Punctuated equilibrium and the dynamics of U.S. environmental policy. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut.

Ehrenfeld, D. 1979. The arrogance of humanism. Oxford University Press, New York.

Fischer, D.H. 1996. The great wave. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Ingram, H. and L. Fraser. 2006. Path dependency and adroit innovation. Pages 78-109 in R. Repetto, editor. Punctuated equilibrium and the dynamics of U.S. environmental policy. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut.

Goldstein, J.S. 1988. Long cycles. Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut.

Koopmans, R. 2004. Protest in time and space. Pages 19-46 in D.A. Snow, S.A. Soule, and H. Kriesi, editors. The Blackwell companion to social movements. Blackwell, Malden Massachusetts.

Kreisi, H. 2004. Political context and opportunity. Pages 67-90 in D.A. Snow, S.A. Soule, and H. Kriesi, editors. The Blackwell companion to social movements. Blackwell, Malden Massachusetts.

Phillips, K. 2006. American theocracy. Viking, New York.

Shakespeare, W. Julius Caesar. Act 4, Scene 3.

Thompson, W.R. 2000. K-waves, leadership cycles, and global war. Pages 83-104 in T.D. Hall, editor. A world systems reader. Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham, Maryland.

Wallace, A.F.C. 1956. Revitalization movements. American Anthropologist 58:264-281.

Wallace, A.F.C. 1970. Culture and personality. Second edition. Random House, New York.

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